Subscribe Free
in Air Transport

Oliver Wyman sees expansion ahead for aviation industry despite challenges

Posted 17 February 2020 · Add Comment

The next decade will be more challenging for the aviation industry than the 10 years previous years, despite prospects for rising passenger demand, according to Oliver Wyman’s annual Global Fleet & MRO Forecast.

 

By the beginning of 2030, the global fleet is expected to grow to over 39,000 aircraft, a compound annual growth rate of 3.4 percent annually. This despite looming challenges such as slower economic expansion, increased congestion in the air and at airports, trade-related issues, and pressure on the industry to more actively address climate change. The fleet growth will also fuel increased demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services.

 

In the short-term, the industry is also facing potential impacts from the rapidly spreading coronavirus as well as the grounding of the 737 MAX.  While in last year’s report, we expected 1,400 737 MAX aircraft to be in service around the world by 2020, the 2019 grounding and subsequent production halt will reduce that number to somewhere between 150 and 700 depending on when the aircraft passes re-certification requirements, is cleared for service, and pilots are trained on any new updates. 

 

“Even with these challenges, along with some expected slowing in the growth rate of passenger demand as well as changes in the mix of traditional freight and ecommerce freight, the industry should still see solid fleet growth in both passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 10 years,” said Tom Cooper, Oliver Wyman vice present and lead author of the report.

 

Manufacturers will produce over 21,000 aircraft, at an annual average of 2,100, which is more than 30 percent above production for the previous decade, and demand for MRO is expected to expand by 3.7 percent compounded annual growth rate over the next 10 years.

 

“In terms of aircraft class, narrowbodies will see the most growth at well over 5 percent which is more than any other class,” Cooper added. “Additionally, the engine category will continue to be the primary driver of overall MRO market growth.”

 

Key findings include:

 

In-service fleet forecast:

Globally, the fleet will grow at an average of 3.4 percent annually, with Asia driving most of the growth. China’s fleet is expected to double in size by 2030.

The global fleet is relatively older than ever before. Currently, there are 2.5 times more aircraft over the age of 25 in use than in 2010.  In the next decade, there will be an increase in retirements compared to the previous 10. The 737 MAX and A320neo will represent most of the new aircraft deliveries, despite the current issues facing the MAX.

 

MRO forecast:

The global aging fleet will have a positive effect on MRO demand – pushing it to $130 billion in 2030 from $90 billion in 2020, an average annual growth of 3.7 percent. Engine MRO is the largest and fastest growing segment.

MRO demand will continue to be concentrated in the top 10 types of aircraft (85%), but by 2030 the A320neo and 737MAX will represent two of the four largest platforms by MRO demand

The impact of the 737 MAX grounding and corresponding production pause will have effects on MRO demand and will be first seen two to three years down the line when the first round of heavy maintenance is due.

 

Forecast scenarios:

A significant number of factors are contributing to a riskier outlook for Europe, including; concerns about climate change, Brexit, and financial troubles of some airlines.

The 737 MAX challenges have had a significant impact on the in-service fleet forecast. By the beginning of 2022, there will be between 30 and 45 percent fewer MAXs in operation than expected at the start of last year.

 

* required field

Post a comment

Other Stories
Advertisement
Latest News

Airport Show to launch webinar series from July 7

The annual airport industry B2B platform The Airport Show is launching a series of webinars starting on 7 July to facilitate essential discussion within airport industry professionals to debate the challenging times triggered by the

Emirates SkyCargo expands cargo connectivity

Emirates SkyCargo will be operating scheduled cargo flights to 100 destinations across six continents during the month of July 2020.

IATA: Get the aviation industry moving again

Airports Council International (ACI) World and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) have today urged that costs related to public health measures aimed at mitigating the spread of communicable diseases should be borne

Strata delivers shipsets of A350-900 inboard flaps for Airbus

Al Ain based company Strata Manufacturing (Strata) has successfully delivered 100 shipsets of the assembled A350-900 Inboard Flaps (IBF).

Wizz Air lands in Abu Dhabi

Wizz Air and Abu Dhabi Airports have celebrated the arrival of Wizz Air’s first scheduled Wizz Air Hungary flight to Abu Dhabi International Airport.

Dnata’s DUBZ launches home COVID-19 testing

DUBZ, Dnata's baggage technology and logistics company, is now providing COVID-19 testing, enabling customers to safely complete the flight check-in process and obtain a medical certificate within 24 to 48 hours of testing - at home or

GAS_SK2805200920
See us at
MAPS2020 BT1102171120SaudiAirshow21BT2011180221