Subscribe Free
in Air Transport

2036 forecast reveals air passengers will nearly double to 7.8 Billion

Posted 26 October 2017 · Add Comment

IATA expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the 4 billion air travelers expected to fly this year.

The prediction is based on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.

"All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

A number of risks to the forecast have been identified. Maximizing the potential benefits of aviation growth will depend on current levels of trade liberalization and visa facilitation being maintained. If trade protectionism and travel restrictions are put in place, the benefits of air connectivity will decline as growth could slow to 2.7%, meaning 1.1 billion fewer passenger journeys annually in 2036. Conversely, if moves towards liberalisation increase, annual growth could be more than two percentage points faster, leading to a tripling in passengers over the next 20 years.

Planning for growth will require partnerships to be strengthened between the aviation industry, communities and governments to expand and modernize infrastructure. Runways, terminals, and ground access to airports will come under increasing strain. Innovative solutions to these challenges, as well as to the baggage and security processes, cargo handling, and other activities, will also be needed. And air traffic management needs urgent reform to cut delays, costs and emissions.
 
"Increasing demand will bring a significant infrastructure challenge. The solution does not lie in more complex processes or building bigger and bigger airports but in harnessing the power of new technology to move activity off-airport, streamline processes and improve efficiency. Through partnerships within the industry and beyond, we are confident that sustainable solutions for continued growth can be found," said de Juniac.  
 
The aviation industry has adopted a robust strategy to reduce its environmental impacts, particularly its carbon emissions. "No industry has done more to meet its environmental obligations than aviation. Our tough targets to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020 and to cut our CO2 emissions to half-2005 levels by 2050 are backed by a comprehensive strategy. Our immediate aims are to work with governments to increase the production of sustainable aviation fuels, and to deliver air traffic management efficiencies, which promise significant emissions savings. And from 2020, a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) will play a major role in meeting our carbon-neutral target," said de Juniac.      
 
Fast-growing markets
The five fastest-growing markets in terms of annual additional passengers in 2036 compared to 2016 will be
China (921 million new passengers for a total of 1.5 billion) 
US (401 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion)
India (337 million new passengers for a total of 478 million) 
Indonesia (235 million new passengers for a total of 355 million) 
Turkey (119 million new passengers for a total of 196 million).
 
The Middle East will grow strongly (5.0%) and will see an extra 322 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2036. The total market size will be 517 million passengers. 
 
 
* required field

Post a comment

Other Stories
Advertisement
Latest News

Something in the Air at Salam

Just a year into its life as one of the Gulf’s newest low-cost carriers, Oman’s SalamAir has plans for major expansions of both its fleet and route network.

3-D printed parts and new materials help Rolls-Royce to engine test success

Rolls-Royce’s Advance3 engine is helping pioneer the future of civil aerospace – with 3D printed parts and the introduction of new materials helping to lead the way.

Spatial commissioned by Pegasus Airlines to build A321NX Over Wing Exit Trainer

Spatial, a provider of cabin crew training simulators, has announced that it was commissioned by Pegasus Airlines to build an A321NX Over Wing Exit Trainer.

UAE Space Agency joins International Space Education Board

The UAE’s representation on the ISEB will provide the first regional input to the group’s objectives of increasing literacy in space and related STEM fields, as well as supporting the development of advanced skills that will be required

Kuwait Airways latest to take A330neo

The national carrier of the state of Kuwait, Kuwait Airways, has signed a Purchase Agreement for eight A330-800 aircraft, with Yousef Al-Jassim, Kuwait Airways Chairman and Christian Scherer, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer,

KhalifaSat countdown begins

The team from Mohammed bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC) are looking relaxed ahead of the planned October 29 launch of KhalifaSat. They are in Japan to conduct the final tests on the satellite as it was prepared for the mating with the launch

TAA SK0902311218
See us at
Aviation Africa BT0607280219MAPS18_BT1207131118AIME19BTA3005120219MarrakechAirshow BT2507241018AviationShowBT1110141118BIAS BT271017161118GATM BT1004061118MEBAA BT1004121218