MAX packs a low-cost punch

The mix of a large, youthful population, growing incomes and vast numbers of guest workers in the region means that the LCC model is being very successful in the Middle East, according to Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ vice-president, marketing.

LCCs traditionally favour single-aisle designs and Tinseth was speaking at a briefing at London’s Royal Aeronautical Society on progress with the Boeing 737 MAX.

Boeing says it has “more than 1,000” orders and commitments for the 737 MAX. Of that total, fewer than 600 have been publicly allocated to named operators, with 11 as-yet unidentified operators that have placed orders or commitments.

Tinseth displayed Boeing’s traditional reticence over providing hints as to their identities – even to the extent of declining to say whether any were located in the MENA region.

It is known, however, that fast-expanding LCC flydubai has had discussions with Boeing on the MAX as it evaluates it together with Airbus’s competing A320neo. CEO Ghaith Al Ghaith said in January he anticipated making a decision around a year from then.

A flydubai deal for the 737-8 variant of the MAX “will be firmed up sooner, rather than later – especially as Boeing keeps selling slots to other customers”, according to industry analyst Saj Ahmed.

“The airline cannot afford to slow its growth by not having new aeroplanes in place, otherwise the drive for profitability could slide by several years and it needs more fuel-efficient aircraft to mitigate against continued rises in oil and fuel costs.”

Tinseth did comment, however, that all the unidentified buyers had put down deposits on their planned aircraft and “we’re working to finalise those deals”. The mystery airlines represented “a good mix of business models and regions”.

During his briefing, Tinseth accepted that some years ago Boeing had “got behind the curve” in the region, particularly in the single-aisle market, which had allowed rival Airbus to pick up a string of orders. 

However, Boeing had pumped greater resources into the region over the past couple of years, he said, including new sales personnel and an Arabic-language website. New orders had also helped restore the balance.

Boeing has done particularly well in selling its 777 into the region, with Emirates Airline buying the type in large quantities.

Tinseth added that Boeing expects 23,370 new single-aisle aircraft to be required globally in the 2011-2030 timeframe, with 5% of that number – around 1160 – being required by the Middle East market.

Boeing’s 737MAX, which will be produced in -7, -8 and -9 variants that will follow on from the current 737-700, -800 and -900 versions respectively, is due to have its configuration finalised next year. That will allow detailed design to proceed through 2014, with construction starting the following year, first flight taking place in 2016 and service entry in 2017.

Boeing claims that the 737-8 will be 10% lighter than its Airbus A320neo competitor, adding that 75% of total operating costs are affected either directly or indirectly by weight. This, said Tinseth, will give the 737-8 an 8% advantage in seat mile costs over its European rival. Boeing said  The Next-Generation 737 currently has a 7 percent fuel-use advantage over the A320neo. The two new engine programs are adding about the same amount of improvements to each airframe. These updates coupled with additional improvements added by each airframe manufacturer result in an 8 percent advantage for the 737 MAX over the A320neo.

Fuel efficiency would be 13% better than the exisiting 737NG family, he claimed, with around 11% coming from the new CFM Leap-1B powerplant and other savings from the winglets and the new design of the aft section which brings aerodynamic advantages. Exact thrust levels had still to be decided but Boeing was in “the last phase of wind tunnel testing” and was about to finalise the type’s maximum take-off weight – which, in turn, would determine range.

Among aerodynamic tweaks over current 737 variants is the type’s distinctive ‘dual feather winglet concept’, which Tinseth said Boeing had been studying for some years. Combined with a raked wingtip this should reduce fuel burn by an extra 1% over short-haul routes, increasing up to a maximum 1.5% at ranges out to 3,000nm. They are also designed to fit within current space constraints at airport gates.

Unlike Airbus, Boeing has traditionally eschewed fly-by-wire (FBW) controls. It is dipping its toe in the FBW water on the 737MAX by having the aircraft’s spoilers controlled electronically. This, said Tinseth, will save both weight and maintenance costs. However, Boeing is still set against a full FBW system: “We talked to our engineers and they just didn’t see the value in that.”

Also a matter for the crystal ball is the degree to which new market entrants such as the Russians and Chinese will begin to eat into the marketplace. “The duopoly between Boeing and Airbus is over,” Tinseth accepted. While newcomers such as Irkut and COMAC are not pushing Boeing at the moment, “Undoubtedly, as we go further out, one of them will have success.”