$75bn worth of civil helicopter deliveries predicted over next decade

Ascend’s Client Delivery Manager Chris Wills, said: “The industry will also be boosted by the continued growth of the operating lessors and greater input from export credit agencies, looking to make the most of the increase in demand in the helicopter industry.”

This is all driven by persistent growth of the global helicopter fleet, with particular focus in developing regions and further renewal of the offshore oil and gas support fleet.

Ascend’s own helicopter fleet forecast predicts growth of the in-service fleet to over 28,000 turbine helicopters by 2023, representing deliveries of $75bn worth of new aircraft. 2013 saw a record number of deliveries of turbine helicopters, passing 1,000.

Wills added: “The entry into service of the first of the new 16-18 seat ‘super-medium’ helicopters – the AgustaWestland AW189 and the Airbus Helicopters EC175, will be a key part in making 2014 an interesting one for the commercial helicopter market.”

“On a less positive note, it’s difficult to see much change in the ongoing poor performance of the corporate sector”, said Wills.

The outlook for individual types is therefore quite varied. Ascend Online Values focuses mainly on the most commonly traded 10-19 seat medium to heavy types although Ascend does monitor and appraise all sizes of helicopters.

The two in-production heavies, the Airbus Helicopters EC225 and Sikorsky S-92, continue to be the core of the deepwater offshore support fleet.

However, the issues faced by the EC225 (above) over the past year have resulted in some uncertainty in the market. There is the expectation in many quarters that it is purely a matter of time for confidence to fully return. As such, Ascend has not revised its long term value forecasts for the type, as we still expect it to maintain its position alongside the S-92 over the long term. In the short term, Ascend predicts more of a divergence in values at the new end between the two types. However, the recent orders placed at HELI-EXPO, along with the announcement for the new longer range derivative of the EC225, the EC225e, are already indications that the gap between types is not a long term phenomenon.

The entry into service of the AW189 (above) is being eagerly awaited, already with a positive response from the market, and its performance will be closely watched. The EC175 is also due to enter service later in 2014 following certification in February. Ascend will be monitoring how these two compete, in the new super-medium category and what the market will look like when the competing Bell 525, scheduled to fly this year, enters service. No immediate impact is expected on the medium types from these entries into service, as in many cases the longevity of the existing programmes has already seen demand reducing.

Demand for the Bell 412EP is split between short range offshore and utility/EMS markets and take up of the new EPi has been minimal, while demand for both the smaller AS365 and EC155 has been low. We have no indication of a change in the status quo for these three types in 2014, particularly with the introduction of the two super-medium types.

For the AgustaWestland AW139 (above), production rates remain high, pricing appears to be competitive and orders continue to be placed. Although for the older builds and for corporate examples demand is notably lower. Overall Ascend expects values for the AW139 to remain relatively stable at their current levels during 2014.

The corporate market continues to suffer, with no clear indication of when things might improve. Types with a large exposure to the sector, typically the smaller light twins/singles, remain soft and in many cases with limited new demand; the AgustaWestland AW109 is a notable example. Even smaller types with a strong EMS/Law Enforcement presence, such as the EC135, have seen increased availability on the market and lowering values.